What’s Next in the World of Flight?

Even though I’m retired, sometimes I get asked about work-related things. What will the next innovations be? When do you think they will happen?

Good questions – not even the “experts” know for sure. That’s the great thing about predictions – no one knows and no one gets blamed – mainly because no one will remember you said it. Lol. So, here goes.

Since my background is aerospace, and commercial aviation in particular, these are my thoughts about what will happen in the near future when it comes to airplanes. First off, here’s my disclaimer: Commercial aviation is ludicrously slow to adopt new technology. Why? Because it is highly regulated. In all probability, new technology means new regulations need to be written to cover it. It’s a learning curve not only for the industry, but for the regulators. So, double the time frame.

Then there is the reluctance of any airline to be a groundbreaker. As an executive at Continental Airlines once told me, “We want to be leading edge, not bleeding edge.” In other words, we don’t want to suffer being first, but we do like being an early adopter. Got it. So, you don’t want this great new product we have, but you’ll be happy to consider it once we get some other sucker to be first. And suckers don’t survive in aviation, so something new rarely gets a chance.

Unless, that is, the regulators get hold of it and decide to require it. Then, everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Suddenly, you’re golden. But it takes more than a hope and a prayer to get you there. The easiest example is reinforced cockpit doors after 9/11. Nobody wanted those before, and everyone couldn’t get them fast enough after.

So what are the next big things? I was specifically asked about the next five to ten years. In aviation terms, that’s short term. Let’s try and be realistic for what we think might happen.

As I said, I’m speaking primarily from a commercial aviation perspective. We’re going to ignore the propulsion segment because that is a long-term, evolutionary niche. Battery tech won’t progress far enough in the next few years to create a huge impact for airplanes, and other top secret propulsion systems are also out of short-term reach.

Let’s disregard safety for a moment and work towards the three things that typically drive aerospace design: lightness, reliability, and durability. In the next decade I see an effort to increase reliability and reduce pilot workloads, one by increasing software capabilities, and two, by increasing the use of wireless technology.

Primarily, wireless adoption will be driven by a need to reduce aircraft weight per passenger and increasing the delta between overall aircraft empty weight versus maximum takeoff weight. This will be accomplished by utilizing wireless tech to replace heavy copper wire, miles of which are in a typical Boeing or Airbus airplane. But don’t get too excited. Wireless will move slowly, as guarantees of complete security and reliability will be paramount before adoption will be allowed. That also means new regulations.

Software development and AI will help move it forward, so in that sense, software and wireless will be intertwined. In the shorter term, there may be a push to further replace copper wire with fiber optic cable.

As for software, with the help of AI it is evolving rapidly. Regulation, as always, stands in the way. Adoption will be paced, particularly after the Boeing 737MAX disasters, by intense scrutiny from the regulators. Inevitably, new and tougher regulations will be written. That will slow things down.

What functions does software serve in an airplane? Engine management, fuel management, aircraft control surfaces, navigation, real-time part life prediction, passenger entertainment, communications management, water and waste systems management – you name it, a computer probably controls it. Next on the list is the self-piloting airplane. Technically, planes can do that now. Full autonomous control will be next, but it’s a huge psychological and regulatory leap to make it happen.

There are my predictions. Don’t hold me to them. Like all supposed ‘experts,’ I’m just barking in the wind. But it’s always interesting to see what happens.